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India FY15 growth pegged at 7.4%
February 9, 2015, 1:22 pm

The statistics department has started measuring the gross domestic product by including indirect taxes [Xinhua]

The statistics department has started measuring the gross domestic product by including indirect taxes [Xinhua]

The Indian government on Monday forecast annual economic growth to accelerate to 7.4 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2015  on the basis of a new method of calculating GDP.

The latest estimate compares with a revised 6.9 per cent growth a year earlier and is based on the new formula. The statistics department has started measuring the gross domestic product by including indirect taxes.

The Central Statistics Office on Friday also estimated the September-December 2014 quarter GDP growth at 7.5 per cent. Based on the new base year and the method of calculations, the April-June 2014 quarter provisional GDP growth was revised to 6.5 per cent.

Many commentators and economists, including the government’s Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian, however, have warned against rushing in to use the new numbers to craft policy.

“I am puzzled by the new GDP growth numbers. The revised numbers show GDP growth rose from 4.7 per cent to 5.1 per cent for 2012-13 and from five per cent to 6.9 per cent for 2013-14. This means acceleration in GDP growth of 1.9 percentage points in 2013-14, just by comparing the new numbers across time. This is mystifying because these numbers, especially the acceleration in 2013-14, are at odds with other features of the macro economy,” Subramaniam said in a recent interview to Indian daily, the Business Standard.

 

TBP